APOPHIS Projection-Memory Assumption Atlas V02

Apophis Projection–Memory Assumption Atlas V02 (20 Oct 2026): a typed, falsifiable LoE report on whether the April 2029 Earth encounter of asteroid (99942) Apophis could open internal degrees of freedom hidden by a barycentric or rigid-body reduction. Does not claim a neck-slip, nor that LoE is empirically confirmed. Replaces an informal “unlocked barycenter” with Barycentric Fiber Unlocking and a Projection–Flow Defect. Four models under the same tidal forcing: M0 rigid rotation, M1 Markovian viscoelastic neck, M2 hereditary memory kernel (Bell-Swirl as a candidate projection-memory kernel, not a delayed anomaly), M3 threshold plastic return with variable inertia at conserved angular momentum L = I(t)ω(t). In the tested reduced scenario a fractional inertia change of 2×10⁻⁵ crosses an illustrative 0.05° phase threshold after ~13.9 days; the M2 branch alone stays below it. Explicitly a first-order projection test, not a prediction for the real asteroid. V03 would need the inertial backreaction on the neck coordinate. MODEL_INFERENCE · TAU_ACTIVE · canon_commit false. Toonhai–AEon line; the variable-inertia channel is noted as proposed in parallel exploration with Gemini, not as co-authorship.